Detailed Report on ICUMSA 45 Sugar Price Evolution During 2024 and Outlook for 2025
Introduction
ICUMSA 45 sugar, renowned for its high purity and refined quality, serves as a benchmark in the global sugar market. Understanding its price dynamics is crucial for stakeholders across the supply chain. This report delves into the price evolution of ICUMSA 45 sugar throughout 2024 and provides insights into the anticipated trends for 2025, with a focus on Brazil’s production and China’s demand.
Price Evolution in 2024
At the onset of 2024, ICUMSA 45 sugar prices remained relatively stable, supported by steady demand from various sectors, including the food and beverage industries. As the year progressed, several factors influenced price fluctuations:
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Mid-2024: Adverse weather conditions in key sugar-producing regions, notably Brazil and India, led to concerns over supply constraints, resulting in a price surge during the mid-year months.
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Late 2024: Improved weather conditions and the anticipation of better harvests contributed to a stabilization of prices. Additionally, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly a strengthening U.S. dollar, impacted global trade dynamics and exerted downward pressure on prices.
According to Trading Economics, sugar prices were expected to trade at 18.85 cents per pound by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
Brazil’s Sugar Production in 2024
Brazil, as the world’s leading sugar producer, plays a pivotal role in global sugar pricing. In the marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Brazil’s sugarcane fields performed exceptionally well, producing a record of 705 million metric tons (MMT) due to optimal weather conditions and investments in field renovation. However, the MY 2024/25 harvest is not expected to follow the same upward trend, as unusual dry weather has disfavored sugarcane cultivation in the initial months of plantation.
The National Supply Company (Conab) estimated Brazilian sugarcane production at 689.8 million tons for the 2024/25 harvest, a 3.3% decrease from the previous cycle. This reduction is primarily attributed to lower crop performance due to low rainfall and high temperatures in the Center-South region.
Despite these challenges, Brazil’s sugar production is projected to reach a record high of 43.1 million tonnes in the 2024/25 fiscal year, indicating increased efficiency in sugar extraction.
China’s Sugar Demand in 2024
China remains a significant player in the global sugar market, primarily due to its substantial consumption levels. In MY 2024/25, China’s sugar consumption is forecast to increase to 15.7 MMT, driven by anticipated lower sugar prices.
Domestic production is also expected to rise, with forecasts of 10.4 MMT for MY 2024/25, as planted areas for both cane and beet are anticipated to expand. Despite this increase, a production gap persists, necessitating significant imports to meet domestic demand. Estimates suggest a sugar supply gap of about 5 million tonnes, highlighting China’s continued reliance on imports.
Market Trends and Influencing Factors
Several key factors played pivotal roles in shaping the ICUMSA 45 sugar market in 2024:
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Global Production Levels: Variations in sugarcane yields due to climatic conditions directly impacted supply.
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Currency Exchange Rates: A stronger U.S. dollar made sugar exports more expensive for countries with weaker currencies, influencing global demand.
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Energy Prices: Rising energy costs increased production expenses, which were often passed on to consumers through higher sugar prices.
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Policy Decisions: Export policies and tariffs in major sugar-producing countries affected global supply chains and pricing structures.
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead, the ICUMSA 45 sugar market is poised to navigate a complex landscape in 2025:
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Price Projections: Analysts anticipate that sugar prices may experience a modest decline in early 2025, with Trading Economics projecting a trade price of approximately 17.60 cents per pound in 12 months’ time.
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Supply Dynamics: Optimism surrounding Brazil’s crop may partially offset projected global sugar trade deficits in the first quarter of 2025. However, the 2024/25 marketing year still points towards a deficit.
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Long-Term Forecast: Some forecasts suggest that by 2025, sugar prices could reach 36 points, an increase of slightly more than 50% from current levels, assuming the continuation of the rising trend channel observed in recent years.
Conclusion
The ICUMSA 45 sugar market in 2024 was characterized by volatility driven by environmental factors, economic conditions, and policy decisions. As we move into 2025, stakeholders should remain vigilant, monitoring these variables to make informed decisions. While there is potential for price increases, the market remains susceptible to rapid changes, underscoring the importance of adaptive strategies in the face of uncertainty.
ICUMSA-45 Sugar stands out as an exceptionally refined sugar
variant. Characterized by its brilliant white color, it is primarily marketed
directly to consumers. This sugar type is well-suited for human consumption and
finds applications in various food products. Its continuous high demand can be
attributed to its status as the safest form of sugar. The refining process
employed in its production effectively eliminates bacteria and contaminants
commonly found in raw sugars.
Below are the specifications for ICUMSA-45 White Refined Sugar of Brazilian origin:
Specifications of SUGAR – ICUMSA 45
Origin: Brazil
ICUMSA: 45 RBU ICUMSA Attenuation index units Method # 10-1978
Ash content: 0.04% Maximum by Weight
Moisture: 0.04% Maximum by Weight
Magnetic Particles: mg/kg 4
Solubility: 100% DRY & Free Flowing
Granulation: Fine Standard
Polarization: 99.80° Minimum
Max AS: 1 P.P.M.
Max OS: 2 P.P.M.
Max CU: 3 P.P.M.
Colour: Sparkling White
Sediments: NONE
Radiation: Normal w/o presence of cesium or iodine SO2: Certified
SO2: 70 MG/KG MAXIMUM
Substance: Solid, Crystal
Smell: Free of any Smell
Crop: Recent Crop
Minimum Order Quantity (MOQ) and Minimum Per Shipment
Vessel load:
12,500MT Spot and/or Annual Contract
PROCEDURES for CIF:
Buyer issues a full LOI or ICPO on behalf of supplier after agreeing the price and terms of trading.
Seller shall issue a full corporate offer (FCO) to the buyer.
The buyer confirms THE COMMERCIAL OFFER (FCO) and returns it signed together with an IRREVOCABLE CORPORATE PURCHASE ORDER (ICPO), in the name of the selling company, including the buyer’s bank references and a color copy of the buyer’s passport.
The seller issues a draft contract to the buyer, makes the necessary corrections and returns it to the seller.
The seller sends the corrected draft contract back to the buyer.
Once agreed, the buyer signs the contract and returns it to the seller.
The seller signs the contract and sends it by email to the buyer in pdf format (closed) as a final and definitive contract.
The buyer sends the agreed payment instrument DLC (DRAFT) to the seller’s bank for confirmation within 10 business days from the day both parties sign the contract.
Once the agreed payment instrument DLC (DRAFT) has been confirmed, verified and corrected, the buyer’s bank issues the final instrument via SWIFT (MT700 / MT720), as guarantee and payment MT (102/103), payment instrument that must be issued by a top 20 bank. Buyer confirms that such funds are good, clean, cleared, unencumbered, legitimately obtained and non-criminal in origin.
The first shipment related to the trial will be made within 15 to 35 days after the total activation of the letters of credit begins the logistics of cargo shipment.
Shipments related to annual contracts will be made within 35 to 45 days after the total activation of the letters of credit (DLC) begins the logistics of cargo shipment.
The seller deliver the product to the ship, incoterms terms agreed at the port of origin
SGS performs the inspection (costs are borne by the seller).
Seller sends B/L and all required documents including commercial invoice to buyer.
The letters of credit (DLC) will be used as guarantee and payment of the entire order.
Seller’s bank submit shipping documents to buyer’s bank within 24 hours of shipment of cargo. (in the terms as indicated in the purchase contract).
Within 3 business days after the documents are sent to the buyer’s bank, the actual
payment of the delivered cargo must be made 100% SWIFT (MT102 / MT103).
The seller then transfers title to the property certificate in the name of the buyer.
The buyer is responsible for customs clearance at the destination port (aswp) and the issuance of important nationalization documents.
PROCEDURES for DDP Delivered Duty Paid US:
1. The Buyer sends a LOI Letter of Intent to the Seller.
2. The Seller sends a FCO Full Corporate Offer to the Buyer.
3. The buyer confirms THE COMMERCIAL OFFER (FCO) and returns it signed together with an IRREVOCABLE CORPORATE PURCHASE ORDER (ICPO), in the name of the selling company, including the buyer’s bank references and a color copy of the buyer’s passport.
4. The seller issues a draft contract to the buyer, makes the necessary corrections and returns it to the seller.
5. The seller sends the corrected draft contract back to the buyer.
6. Once agreed, the buyer signs the contract and returns it to the seller.
7. The seller signs the contract and sends it by email to the buyer in pdf format (closed) as a final and definitive contract.
8. The buyer sends the agreed payment instrument SBLC (DRAFT) to the seller’s bank for confirmation within 10 business days from the day both parties sign the contract.
9. Once the agreed payment instrument SBLC (DRAFT) has been confirmed, verified and corrected, the buyer’s bank issues the final instrument via SWIFT (MT760), as guarantee and payment MT (103), payment instrument that must be issued by a top 20 bank.
10. Buyer confirms that such funds are good, clean, cleared, unencumbered, legitimately obtained and non-criminal in origin.
11. The first shipment related to the trial will be made within 15 to 30 days after the total activation of the letters of credit begins the logistics of cargo shipment.
12. Shipments related to annual contracts will be made within 35 to 45 days after the total activation of the letters of credit (SBLC ) begins the logistics of cargo shipment.
13. The seller delivers the product to the ship, incoterms terms agreed at the port of origin.
14. SGS performs the inspection (costs are borne by the seller).
15. Seller sends B/L and all required documents including commercial invoice to buyer.
16. The letters of credit (SBLC ) will be used as guarantee and payment of the entire order.
17. Seller’s bank submits shipping documents to buyer’s bank within 24 hours of shipment of cargo. (in the terms as indicated in the purchase contract).
18. Within 3 business days after the documents are sent to the buyer’s bank, the actual payment of the delivered cargo must be made 100% SWIFT (MT103).
19. The seller then transfers title to the property certificate in the name of the buyer.
20. The seller is responsible for customs clearance at the destination port (aswp) and the issuance of import and nationalization documents.
21. Monthly deliveries continue with agreed incoterms in accordance with the logistics and schedule agreed in the contract.
All Banking charges from the Buyer´s Bank shall be borne by the buyer and all banking charges incurred by the Seller at Seller´s Bank shall be borne by the Seller.
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